Palm oil rose and fell

Palm oil has been on a roller-coaster ride in 2022, with rallies followed by high dives. In the first four months, the price soared by more than 63% to a record high of 16,100 yuan per ton. Then began a continuous decline, the decline of more than 53%.

After the New Year's Day, affected by the reduction of palm oil in Malaysia, the market of oil on the external plate soared strongly. The domestic palm oil rose with the same price, and the price soared all the way until the end of May. The highest price was as high as 16,100 yuan/ton, breaking historical records repeatedly. Since June, the price of palm oil has plunged and continued to fall until September 30, when it fell from a high of 16,100 yuan to 7,500 yuan, a reduction of more than 50%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of palm oil in the first nine months of 2022, we can see more vividly that palm oil rose for two months in a row at the beginning of 2022, and gained nearly 20% in February. It fell in March, losing nearly 8 percent, and bottomed out in April, rising a record more than 32 percent. In addition to the biggest drop in June, palm oil also fell more than 16 percent in September.

The main reason for the market decline for 5 months: Malaysian palm oil into the production cycle, palm oil inventories continue to rise, the negative leading, palm oil market falls.

After the New Year's Day, during the Spring Festival, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, the import volume decreased, and the terminal oil demand increased. The domestic palm oil port inventory continued to decline until June, and the inventory dropped from 600,000 tons in January to 240,000 tons. Despite LOW PALM OIL inventories in June, IT WAS HARD TO STOP THE FALL due TO bearish external markets. Since July, palm oil stocks have been climbing and increasing, and by September 27, domestic palm oil stocks have reached 525,000 tons, returning to the high level. The inventory pressure has increased, and the external market is dominated by bad news. The palm oil market continues to fall, falling by more than 30%.

The FOURTH QUARTER IS THE traditional PEAK season FOR oil consumption, the terminal consumption demand increases, the pressure on palm oil inventory is relieved, the profit is exhausted, and the afternoon palm oil rise can be expected.